Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.0% and 1.2%?
Yes probability
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About this market
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the Eurozone over the 12-month period ending December 2026 as reported by Eurostat. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report. The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
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Comments are local to your session.
Liquidity looks healthy here — the spread tightened over the last day and depth on both sides is holding up. I added on the dip and I'm comfortable carrying this into resolution unless the volume profile changes materially.
Liquidity looks healthy here — the spread tightened over the last day and depth on both sides is holding up. I added on the dip and I'm comfortable carrying this into resolution unless the volume profile changes materially.
Agreed, the order book is unusually balanced for this category.
Agreed, the order book is unusually balanced for this category.
What do you mean by depth here?
What do you mean by depth here?
Volume spike lines up with the latest headlines. Historically these moves mean-revert within a few sessions, so I'm fading the momentum and sizing small. Watching the 24h figure closely.
Volume spike lines up with the latest headlines. Historically these moves mean-revert within a few sessions, so I'm fading the momentum and sizing small. Watching the 24h figure closely.
Brave. I'm on the other side of this one.
Brave. I'm on the other side of this one.
The crowd's been directionally right on similar markets this quarter, but the tails are underpriced. I like a small position on the longshot outcome as a hedge.
The crowd's been directionally right on similar markets this quarter, but the tails are underpriced. I like a small position on the longshot outcome as a hedge.