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LiveResolves in 159 days

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?

Yes probability

7-day history
Low 46%Now 52%High 56%

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Volume
$9.8K
Liquidity
$9.6K
24h Volume
$108.1
Ends
Dec 31, 2026

About this market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, (48.589446° N, 37.831430° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Chasiv Yar will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/XPJfnzoeRtB7UEmDA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Community4

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  • Liquidity looks healthy here — the spread tightened over the last day and depth on both sides is holding up. I added on the dip and I'm comfortable carrying this into resolution unless the volume profile changes materially.

    Liquidity looks healthy here — the spread tightened over the last day and depth on both sides is holding up. I added on the dip and I'm comfortable carrying this into resolution unless the volume profile changes materially.

    • Agreed, the order book is unusually balanced for this category.

      Agreed, the order book is unusually balanced for this category.

    • What do you mean by depth here?

      What do you mean by depth here?

  • Volume spike lines up with the latest headlines. Historically these moves mean-revert within a few sessions, so I'm fading the momentum and sizing small. Watching the 24h figure closely.

    Volume spike lines up with the latest headlines. Historically these moves mean-revert within a few sessions, so I'm fading the momentum and sizing small. Watching the 24h figure closely.

    • Brave. I'm on the other side of this one.

      Brave. I'm on the other side of this one.

  • The crowd's been directionally right on similar markets this quarter, but the tails are underpriced. I like a small position on the longshot outcome as a hedge.

    The crowd's been directionally right on similar markets this quarter, but the tails are underpriced. I like a small position on the longshot outcome as a hedge.