Will Jess Phillips be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?
Yes probability
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About this market
This market will resolve to the individual who is officially appointed as the next Home Secretary of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Home Secretary will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Home Secretary is appointed, or Shabana Mahmood is re-appointed as Home Secretary, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No next Home Secretary in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Liquidity looks healthy here — the spread tightened over the last day and depth on both sides is holding up. I added on the dip and I'm comfortable carrying this into resolution unless the volume profile changes materially.
Liquidity looks healthy here — the spread tightened over the last day and depth on both sides is holding up. I added on the dip and I'm comfortable carrying this into resolution unless the volume profile changes materially.
Agreed, the order book is unusually balanced for this category.
Agreed, the order book is unusually balanced for this category.
What do you mean by depth here?
What do you mean by depth here?
Volume spike lines up with the latest headlines. Historically these moves mean-revert within a few sessions, so I'm fading the momentum and sizing small. Watching the 24h figure closely.
Volume spike lines up with the latest headlines. Historically these moves mean-revert within a few sessions, so I'm fading the momentum and sizing small. Watching the 24h figure closely.
Brave. I'm on the other side of this one.
Brave. I'm on the other side of this one.
The crowd's been directionally right on similar markets this quarter, but the tails are underpriced. I like a small position on the longshot outcome as a hedge.
The crowd's been directionally right on similar markets this quarter, but the tails are underpriced. I like a small position on the longshot outcome as a hedge.